Odds of making a flush in holdem
If the turn hasn't completed your flush, your odds of completing it on the river are 9/46, or %. This means that the total odds for completing a flush - which should matter for example if you're going all in after the flop - are (%) + (%* (%)) = . Playing Flush and Straight Draws. Mathematics: Flushes & Straights: Simple Pot Odds: Implied Odds: Reverse Implied Odds. Watch SplitSuit's video on Flushes and Flush Draws for 8 hand histories involving strategy on playing flushes in Texas Hold'em. You are on the flop with a pretty decent flush draw. The probability of making a flush, with exactly three cards to the same suit as your hole cards, is combin(11,3)×combin(39,2)/combin(50,5) = / = The probability of making a flush, with four more cards to the same suit as your hole cards, is combin(11,4)×combin(39,1)/combin(50,5) = / =
Playing Flush and Straight Draws
You are on the flop with a pretty decent flush draw. Use your skills from the last step to work out a ratio for the size of the bet in comparison to the size of the pot. As a matter of fact, if two players start out with two suited cards of the same suit, the odds of both flopping a flush are not as small as one might think. The number of ways to shuffle a single deck of cards is so huge that whenever you shuffle a deck you are virtually guaranteed to have a shuffle that has never been played before and never will be played again. Your dream scenario of flopping a flush can occasionally turn into a nightmare if one of your opponents flops a better flush with you.
If I have 2 cards of the same suit in the hole, and 2 board cards with those suits on the flop, what are the chances that I will hit my flush:.
After the flop you've seen 4 cards of your suit, and 1 of another suit. This means that the total odds for completing a flush - which should matter for example if you're going all in after the flop - are A good rule of thumb I always use for a flush draw is multiply outs 13 spades - 4 spades with 4 on the flop and 2 on the turn.
This ways it's much easier to remember and you aren't that far away from the correct percentage. Obviously a "naked" flush draw is not a very good hand to move all-in with on the flop since you are most likely to be up against a much stronger hand if your opponent raises you. However, if you are holding a flush draw as well as two cards that are higher than the cards on the flop, this is a much stronger hand since you are drawing to a higher pair versus a potential top pair on the flop.
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You probably already knew that. With aces you have nothing to fear before the flop. But with pocket kings there is always this nagging thought in the back of your head that maybe, just maybe, one of your opponents has aces. If you're playing heads-up you're only up against one opponent. That opponent only has aces roughly once every hands. But at a full-ring table 9 players with 8 opponents, it's suddenly much more likely — albeit still a long-shot — that someone has aces against your kings.
You're almost always better off disregarding this worst-case scenario, but sometimes really good players can make impressive folds with kings before the flop. But what about queens? Queens are much more vulnerable and, while it's still much more likely that you're ahead pre-flop, you should consider the scenario that one of your opponents has kings or aces.
A raise, re-raise and an all-in in front of you might be a decent indicator that this 1 in 13 event is unfolding and that you're better off folding your hand. How often do you flop a set? A scenario many poker players are afraid of is the dreaded set over set: you flop a set but one of your opponents flops a better set.
Although quite unlikely this scenario is not that uncommon. You still need two players to have a pocket pair at the same time for that to happen. Heads-up this scenario is much more unlikely, though. Set over set situations are already very uncommon. But what about some truly long-shot scenarios?
Good point. I definitely could have written much more than 21 tips. And this one that you mentioned is indeed very important. Great article as always, Nathan. A couple of thoughts. First, on not trying to bluff bad players, I think it was Doyle Brunson who said "never try to bluff an idiot", his point being that a bad player will not be able to recognize when he's probably beat and be smart enough to ditch the hand. In other words, a good player can be bluffed and a bad player cannot.
And generally on bad streaks, Ted Forrest a great player but not a name today's younger players will know once went on a cooler that lasted over a year, at which point he quit playing for something like three months if memory serves. Both sides of that experience were extreme, but it just goes to show that the greats have to suffer through variance as well.
Thanks Morgan I appreciate it! Thank you for your insights as well. Hard to argue with Doyle or Ted, both legends of the game! Number 8 is almost the most important of them all.
I sometimes have sleeping problems, but tonight I slept really well, and what a difference it made, when I sat down at the tables this morning!
As you say, would an even remotely serious athlete prepare for a match by going to a party the night before, drink a lot of alcohol and go to bed at 4am in the morning?